DISCLAIMER: nothing contained in this newsletter is investment advice—and I have been wrong before.
Those of you who know me personally know that for a tech guy, I have some fairly non-technical hobbies. For one, I am trying to turn my backyard into a mini-farm: I'm trying to grow apples, blueberries, potatoes, bananas, papayas—anything that might take root in my sunny, rocky soil.
Another hobby that I picked up back in September of this year is gold and silver watching. "What the heck is silver watching?" I hear you think. It's simply checking the silver and gold spot price on a regular basis. When I started this back in September of last year, both metals had been on the move for a while. Gold was at $3,687, up 28% from 2024, and silver $42, was up 40% over the same period. Compared to the US stock market*, which was up a respectable 15%, that was pretty good.
* I'm using a year-over-year comparison of the S&P 500 as my measure of the "US stock market".
I thought that was interesting, so I looked into the ways you can invest in precious metals—Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), buying coins a local dealer, futures contracts—and kept watching silver and gold to see what the price would do. And things have just gotten crazy.
NVIDIA & the Stock Market
Anyone who follow stock market news (and even those who don't) have probably heard of NVIDIA. It's the tech company that makes chips that power AI technology. And at the start of 2023, its stock price took off, moving from around $15 per share, to an eye popping peak of $202 in October of last year. Here's the chart:
NVIDIA chart as of Friday January 23, 2026. Get the latest.
That's an eye popping x12 return over a 3 year period. NVIDIA's best year-over-year return was in 2023 when the stock increased +238.87% in a single year. Mind blowing right? The financial news media seems to think so. Here are some headlines:
• "Nvidia: 5 Reasons I Bought More Ahead Of Earnings And So Should You"
• "Prediction: Nvidia Stock Will Be Worth This Much By Year-End 2026"
• "Nvidia Stock Is Flat… But Not For Long (Strong Buy)"
Those of you who are regularly read my blogposts know that I am not bullish on NVIDIA and I think that we are in the midst of an AI bubble, but there is no question that NVIDIA has been THE star performer of the US stock market, growing more than 11 times over in just 36 months. Its market cap recently crossed the $4.5 trillion mark, making it the largest company in the world by a significant margin.
So what does this have to do with silver? It turns out, a lot.
Silver & Tech
Silver is the most conductive metal in the world. So much so that silver is the "gold standard" (pun intended) for both electrical and thermal conductivity. It is so efficient that it is used to define the scale for conductivity, and it turns out that in an AI-powered electrified future, silver is a critical mineral. Literally. In October of last year, the United States added silver to a list of “Critical Minerals” and just last month Samsung announced a new silver powered battery that increases density, range charging speed, and lifespan. Oh, and silver is a critical component in solar power and military weapon systems as well. Put this all together with anxiety around global markets, fiat currency, and the silver chart now looks like a tech stock:
The price of silver as of Friday January 23, 2026 @ 8:57am. Get the latest.
For silver "stackers" (people who regularly buy silver), silver is finally breaking out from the shorting and suppression it's been suffering since 1965. And this is not without many proof points. Here are some relatively recent ones:
In 2014, JPMorgan was sued for manipulating the silver futures market from 2010 through 2011: link
In 2018 John Edmonds pleaded guilty in October to fraudulently manipulating the precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015: link
In 2023, two JPMorgan precious metals traders went to federal prison for price manipulation: link
The primary mechanism for this has been shorting the metal by using paper claims and derivatives. By some estimates, there are 300 paper claims for every ounce of eligible silver. This paper-based derivative works until the buyers start asking for the real metal, which is exactly what sovereign buyers have been doing.
Starting in 2024, China's silver imports surged to over $1.46 billion, driven by strong domestic demand from tech, solar, and general investment. And China is already the world's #2 silver producer (right after Mexico). Effective January 1, 2026, China has severely restricted the exports of silver, further dampening supply. And China is not alone in their buying. In October 2025, India imported around 60 million ounces of silver, compared with about 15 million ounces a year earlier.
And tech giants are paying attention. To quote, Elon Musk: "This is not good." Here's the full quote from x:
Until very recently, this type of move in precious metals was not unheard of. Back in in the 1970s and again in the 1980s, we've seen silver (and gold) made big moves. on a cumulative 3 year basis silver went up 144% in the 1970s, and 210% in the 1980s, but the biggest 1 year move was 104%. Last year, silver increased by 153% and so far in 2026 is appreciating at 671% APR.
So what the heck is going on? My read is that we are witnessing a change in the world reserve currency from the US dollar back to precious metals. According to newly released data from the World Gold Council, the value of gold held by foreign central banks is now exceeds their holding in US Treasuries. The last time that foreign institutions held more gold than US bonds was 1996.
Whether this moment proves to be a cyclical spike, a speculative excess, or the early signal of a deeper monetary shift remains to be seen—and I’m fully aware I’ve been wrong before. But when a precious metal starts behaving like a high-growth tech stock, while simultaneously underpinning the infrastructure of an electrified, AI-driven world, it’s worth paying attention. I’m not making predictions here—just observations. And sometimes, watching closely is the most important first step.